Multifamily Offers Stability in the Face of Uncertainty

Multifamily Offers Stability in the Face of Uncertainty

Spring 2023 Issue

By: Sean Burton and Ryan Graf

The sector has always performed well during recessionary periods.

Multifamily real estate is poised to continue to be a bright spot in 2023 despite current economic uncertainty, with the potential for distinct pockets of opportunity for those looking in the right places — and even more so for those with the expertise to build.

Where Do Things Stand Today?

While the real estate market has been significantly affected by recent macroeconomic uncertainty and rising interest rates, rental rates over the past three years have seen historic growth among a stable tenant base. This created a dichotomy between macro conditions and on-the-ground operations. According to research from Real Estate Investment Services and Federal Reserve Economic Data, apartment rents have increased by 21% since 2020, while inflation has risen by 15.5% in the same period.

Although there have been historic transaction volumes in the past few years (See Figure 1), much of that centered on existing product rather than new development, which has done little to help the persistent shortage of housing that plagues many markets in the U.S. The fundamental need for housing and a lack of sufficient supply, especially in the workforce segment, support the growing case for multifamily development, especially in undersupplied markets with high barriers to entry.

The existing U.S. housing shortage was significantly exacerbated by the drop in housing construction following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Freddie Mac data indicates a shortage of four million units nationwide. This shortage is particularly acute in the workforce-housing segment, typically defined as market-rate housing affordable to households earning between 80% and 200% of a market’s area median income. In contrast to the push for government-subsidized affordable housing and growth in the high-end market, the middle segment has received significantly less attention, and it is not keeping up with growing demand. The workforce cohort in the U.S. saw outsized growth during the 2010s, with the number of households earning $75,000+ growing by 3.7 million between 2009 and 2019, according to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies.

Furthermore, this housing shortage is not spread evenly across all markets. Supply-constrained markets like those on the West Coast face a uniquely difficult challenge as developers must possess specialized expertise to solve regulatory, political and geographic challenges.

Demographic trends are also driving demand for multifamily housing. Educated young adults continue to prefer metropolitan locations that provide quality social and professional opportunities, areas that often lack sufficient workforce and attainable housing. These highly amenitized locations offer diverse employment opportunities in addition to convenient public transit, rich cultural experiences and nightlife. This supply/demand imbalance presents attractive opportunities for savvy developers experienced enough to deliver quality product in these attractive locations that is priced for this demographic group.

Over the past three years, the global economy has faced numerous challenges. COVID-19’s initial impacts caused an unprecedented disruption. Unemployment jumped from 3.5% in February 2020 to nearly 15% by April, and GDP saw an 8.8% drop from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2020, the largest quarterly drop ever recorded. Apartment demand dried up quickly, but it snapped back at breakneck speed as government stimulus kickstarted consumer spending and employment quickly recovered. However, compared to the speedy, volatile moves in aggregate demand, supply chains moved at a glacial pace. Worker shortages and supply chain disruptions persisted much longer than most anticipated, including the Federal Reserve. As a result, demand significantly outpaced supply throughout 2021, leading to the highest level of inflation since the early 1980s.

Fortunately, recent evidence suggests that supply chain disruptions and related price increases have abated. Figure 2 illustrates how the price of lumber grew from $460 per 110,000 board feet in February 2020 to a peak of $1,670 in May 2021. This was then followed by a volatile period between the second quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of 2022 before dropping to today’s price of $377, less than its pre-COVID level.

Another example comes from looking at container shipping prices. At their peak in September 2021, the price of shipping one container from East Asia to the North American West Coast was $20,586. As of January 4, 2023, that price has fallen to $1,382, a drop of over 93%, according to data from Freightos.

How Multifamily Generates Strong Returns

Supply chains returning to normal and costs leveling off will help assuage a primary development concern — uncertainty in the escalation of development costs. 2020-2022 saw unprecedented cost escalations reaching 1% to 2% a month in certain markets. However, data from CBRE shows that development costs are leveling off and are now expected to rise at a more predictable, pre-COVID rate of 2% to 4% per year in certain markets, providing more cost certainty and better returns to developers and investors.

Unfortunately, investors do face a new set of risks with rising interest rates and a looming recession. Here, the development business model may present a unique opportunity. Its long time horizon and relative insensitivity to interest rates (up to four times less sensitive compared to value-add product strategies, according to an internal analysis by Cityview) make it a potential source of strong returns for investors seeking to add differentiated growth exposure to their portfolios while also hedging against inflation. A multifamily development project can be four times less sensitive to a change in interest rates than a value-add or core project, due in large part to the value generated through the development process and the timing of when funds are utilized. This allows investors and developers to capitalize on the potential benefits of multifamily, including its historical recession resiliency, while offsetting some of the interest rate impact in today’s macro environment.

Recent recessions have shown multifamily to be uniquely resilient to macroeconomic volatility. It has historically been the best-performing property type during recessions, with demand remaining relatively strong and rents recovering faster than other property types. This is shown in Figure 3’s depiction of rent growth by property type during the GFC.

Occupancy data tells a similar story, as multifamily occupancy fell only 0.7% at its lowest point during the GFC, which is just half of the drop in retail occupancy (1.4%) and less than 1/3 of the drop experienced by industrial (2.4%) and office (2.7%), according to data from CoStar. Furthermore, the recovery and subsequent expansion period following recessions has also seen strong performance, with multifamily rents averaging growth of 20%.

Multifamily’s recession resiliency, ability to function as an inflation hedge and historical growth post-recession make it an attractive investment in these uncertain times for those looking to add differentiated growth exposure to their portfolios. Those who can develop and build may have the opportunity to supercharge that growth by generating value that isn’t always obtainable by merely operating an existing building with the added potential benefit of delivering new product into a post-recession market that has historically seen outsized returns.

Sean Burton is the CEO of Cityview. Ryan Graf is associate of capital raising
and investor relations at Cityview.

Read more:

Sarah Hunt

Senior Associate, Business Development & Capital Relations

Ms. Hunt joined Cityview in 2021 and is a Senior Associate on the Business Development & Capital Relations team.  She is primarily responsible for relationship management, investor communications, and marketing collateral.  Additionally, she works closely with internal functional teams on due diligence efforts and supports investor reporting and special projects.  She is also a member of Cityview’s Sustainability Committee focused on communication of ESG initiatives to investors.

Ms. Hunt has over six years of real estate investment, capital formation, and investor relations experience.  Prior to joining Cityview, she was an Associate with Chicago-based Magnolia Capital.  During her tenure, she worked on equity capital raises for numerous real estate investment vehicles.  Prior to Magnolia, Ms. Hunt was a Financial Analyst with LaSalle Investment Management where she oversaw the financial performance of assets with over $1 billion in value.

Ms. Hunt received her Bachelor of Business Administration degree in Finance, Investment, and Banking from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Ramtin Esfandiari

Director, Acquisitions

Ramtin Esfandiari joined Cityview in 2018 and is responsible for managing acquisitions, including sourcing, underwriting and closing multifamily development deals. Prior to joining Cityview, Ramtin was on the Acquisitions team at The Bascom Group where he underwrote over $9 billion in multifamily acquisitions across the U.S. and supported all aspects of the acquisition process. Ramtin holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Business Economics from the University of California, Irvine, and is an active member of Urban Land Institute.

Jonathan Anderson


Jonathan Anderson is the Controller of Cityview and provides leadership and oversight over the finance, accounting, and shared services departments.  Prior to joining the Cityview team, Jonathan worked at CIM Group where he held several finance and accounting roles during his tenure, most recently as head of private fund reporting and prior to that as director of SEC reporting for one of CIM Group’s publicly traded REITs.  Jonathan began his career in Ernst & Young’s assurance practice where he served both public and private clients in the real estate and asset management industries.  Jonathan graduated from the University of Southern California with both a bachelor’s degree in accounting and a bachelor’s degree in business administration with an emphasis in real estate finance.

Tina O’ Brien

HR Director

Tina O’Brien, HR Director, is a senior national and state-certified HR Professional (SPHR, SHRM-SCP, PHRca), managing the HR team overseeing all aspects of Human Resources for both Cityview and its affiliate, Westhome. Her experience spans the spectrum of the HR field, including recruitment, employee relations, performance management, benefits, compliance and employee development. She joined Cityview in summer 2021 from a telecom technology firm in Van Nuys, and previously worked for a private real estate investment and property management company in Beverly Hills. Tina is an LA native and she’s committed to helping grow our vibrant, healthy corporate culture here at Cityview.

Noah Watts-Russell

Director Asset Management
Noah Watts-Russell is Director, Asset Management of Cityview. As Director of Asset Management, he oversees Cityview’s value-add portfolio and is responsible for establishing and driving the portfolio business plans to maximize performance and value. Prior to joining Cityview, Noah was an Associate in the Real Estate division at The Blackstone Group where he oversaw over $15bn in multifamily real estate (>70,000 units, covering market rate, affordable and rent-controlled) and worked on over $2bn in total sales and $1bn in refinancing. Prior to Blackstone, Noah managed the FP&A team at LivCor, Blackstone’s multifamily asset management company. Noah holds a Bachelor’s degree in Finance and Economics from Washington University in St. Louis.

Denise Katz

Director Asset Management

Denise Katz manages Cityview’s core and development assets across multiple investment vehicles and is responsible for maximizing the operational and financial performance of the assets.  Denise has over twelve years of experience in real estate. Prior to joining Cityview, Denise was Regional Vice President at CIM Group of a $2.4 billion portfolio in the Western US and Latin American markets. During her time at CIM, she managed end-to-end transitions of development projects, acquisitions, and dispositions of office, multifamily, retail, parking, condominium, and mixed-use projects. She holds a double major Bachelor of Arts degree in International Studies and Psychology from Wilkes University in Wilkes-Barre, PA.

Steve Roberts

Director, Development and Construction
Steve Roberts is responsible for the development of several of Cityview’s ground-up multi-family assets, including due diligence, design, entitlement, permitting, construction, and market delivery. Prior to joining Cityview, Steve managed several nationally award-winning projects as Vice President of Development for Community Dynamics, a Santa Monica based developer of residential and mixed-use communities. Steve has built his career on creating exceptional communities that deliver high-quality housing to residents, first-rate design for neighbors and municipalities, as well as strong financial returns to investors. Steve holds a BA in Urban Studies and Planning from UCSD and earned an MBA and Master of Real Estate Development from the University of Southern California.

Anh Le

Director, Development

After 8 years in the construction industry managed complex multi-use development projects, Anh Le joined Cityview in 2018 as Director of Development. Le manages ground-up developments in Northern and Southern California and leads consultant teams through entitlement, design, permitting, budgeting, contracting, construction management and project turnover. She works closely with designers, neighborhood groups and Cityview’s in-house Asset Management team to deliver best-in-class multifamily projects. Prior to Cityview, Le worked as a project engineer and project manager at Cobalt Construction. Le holds a Bachelor’s of Science in Civil Engineering from the University of California, Irvine.

Kyle Naye

Senior Director, Acquisitions

Kyle Naye is Senior Director, Acquisitions of Cityview.  As Senior Director of Acquisitions, he is responsible for managing acquisitions, including sourcing, underwriting, closing and developing comprehensive business plans for investors.  Naye primarily focuses on non-California markets across the Western U.S., including Seattle, Portland, Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Dallas, and Austin.  In his role, Naye works closely with the Cityview team to manage and expand strategic acquisitions across the firm’s vertically integrated platform.

Prior to joining Cityview, Naye was a vice president of originations at PGIM Real Estate, where he provided transactions and underwriting oversight for core-plus and high-yield debt vehicles. He also held a prior role at PGIM managing the underwriting, investment committee preparation and closing of $992 million in multifamily, retail and office assets across the Bay Area and Pacific Northwest. At earlier stages of his career, Naye was a senior associate of acquisitions at Clarion Partners, senior real estate analyst at Northmarq and an officer in the United States Navy.

Zory Grigoryan

Director, Development

As Director of Development, Zory Grigoryan is responsible for the full cycle development of several of Cityview’s projects, which includes managing the due diligence, underwriting, entitlement, design engineering, construction processes and turnover to asset management. Prior to joining Cityview, Grigoryan worked for Oakmont Capital as a Project Manager overseeing the development and construction of several multifamily projects. Prior to that, he worked at Cobalt Construction as a Project Manager on the construction of numerous mixed use and multifamily projects. During his career, Grigoryan has been responsible for the development, preconstruction and construction of over 1,500 units.

Grigoryan holds a Bachelor’s of Science Degree in Construction Management from the California State University of Northridge, where he was the top ranked graduate of his year. During his time at Cobalt Construction, Grigoryan was also selected as distinguished alumni by the CSUN department faculty and appointed as ambassador for alumni recruitment by CSUN construction management department’s board of governors committee.

Chris Brown

Director, Capital Relations

Chris Brown is responsible for capital raising and investor relations at Cityview. Chris has over seven years of real estate investment and capital raising experience. Prior to joining Cityview, he was a member of the Fund Advisory team at JLL working on equity capital raises for private real estate investment vehicles. Prior to JLL, Chris worked on the Portfolio Management team at Clarion Partners and the Asset Management team at LaSalle Investment Management. Chris graduated from Florida State University with a Bachelor’s Degrees in Finance and Real Estate. He is a general securities representative.

Dana Gomez-Gayne

Vice President and Associate General Counsel

Dana Gomez-Gayne manages the legal aspects of all project-related matters, including acquisition, development, management and disposition, and advises Cityview on corporate formation and maintenance, insurance, risk management and other legal matters. She was previously an Associate at O’Melveny & Myers LLP and Manatt, Phelps & Phillips, LLP where she represented a variety of clients in real estate, project development and finance transactions. Gomez-Gayne also has a background in fundraising development and worked at Teach For America raising philanthropic funds from regional and national corporations and foundations. She is a graduate of Pomona College and Pepperdine University School of Law.

Rob Lester

Managing Director, Business Development & Capital Relations
Rob Lester is responsible for business development and capital formation efforts for the Firm’s investment platforms, developing strategic growth initiatives, and creating long-term relationships with investors and partners. He has nearly 25 years of investment banking and private capital formation experience. Prior to joining Cityview, he was Managing Director with Macquarie Capital, and a Managing Principal with Blackstone. ​

Con Howe

Managing Director

Con Howe leads Cityview’s partnerships to finance, assemble and entitle land for development in the greater Los Angeles area. With over 40 years of experience in planning, entitlements and development, he assists all Cityview funds with acquisitions and development strategies. Prior to coming to Cityview he was the Director of Planning for the City of Los Angeles responsible for the Adaptive Reuse Ordinance and zoning to encourage infill housing. Previously he was the Executive Director of the New York City Planning Department.

Shane Robinson


Shane Robinson is responsible for managing all aspects of Cityview’s stabilized, value add and new development assets. With more than 22 years of experience managing multifamily assets, he is a seasoned real estate professional experienced in a range of investment strategies that drive growth and efficiency for investors.

Prior to this role, Shane held pivotal positions at various organizations in the real estate industry. As Vice President of Property Management at Westhome, Robinson played a vital role in implementing the operational infrastructure that facilitated market expansion.

During his tenure at Sunrise Management, his leadership established and solidified the company’s operational foothold in new markets, contributing to the growth and success of the firm. His early asset management career was at GHP Management, where he specialized in lease-ups and effectively managed a substantial core portfolio of over 5,000 units.

Melissa B. Delgado

VP, Asset Management
Melissa Delgado is responsible for overseeing Cityview’s asset management and portfolio operations. Prior to joining Cityview, Melissa was a Senior Director at TruAmerica Multifamily LLC where she was responsible for achieving the investment objectives of an $800 million portfolio. Earlier in her career, Melissa was an asset manager for Kennedy Wilson’s Southern California portfolio. Prior to that, she was a Vice President and Head of Marketing at Kepler Capital Markets, an investment bank in New York. ​

Devang Shah

Managing Director, Acquisitions

Devang Shah is co-head of Cityview’s acquisitions activities on the West Coast. He has 25 years of experience in real estate investment, development, design, construction and asset management. Previously, Devang was the principal of Marketcents Inc., an independent project management firm, serving as an owner’s representative to investment firms, builders and developers. Prior to that, he worked was Vice-President at RCLCo, LLC, a national independent real estate consulting firm. ​

Adam Perry

Senior Vice President, Development and Construction

Adam Perry oversees all aspects of the commercial real estate development process from acquisition due diligence and entitlement processing through design budgeting, contracting, construction management, closeout and turnover. Prior to joining Cityview, Adam worked at CIM group as an Associate Vice President of Development overseeing ground up retail, office and mixed-use developments. ​

Adam holds a BA Degree in Political Science and History from UCLA and an MBA from the UCLA Anderson School of Management.

Matthew Falley

General Counsel & Chief Compliance Officer
Matt Falley oversees and directs the company’s legal affairs and is the firm’s Chief Compliance Officer. Matt was previously a partner at Greenberg Glusker Fields Claman & Machtinger LLP, where he represented numerous clients in the real estate industry, including Cityview. Matt holds a B.A. from the University of California, Santa Barbara and a JD from the University of California, Berkeley School of Law (Boalt Hall), where he was a member of “California Law Review” and Order of the Coif.​

Tony Cardoza

Managing Director, Acquisitions
Tony Cardoza is responsible for Cityview’s acquisition activities throughout the West Coast. He has 21 years of experience in real estate investment and management. Previously, Tony ran the investment group for Real Estate Capital Partners in the Western U.S., which developed and acquired over 5,000 multifamily units. Prior to that, he worked for Prometheus Real Estate Group in a land and multifamily acquisitions role on the West Coast. Tony holds a B.A. in Economics from Middlebury College and an MBA from the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley.​

Jennifer Halvas

Managing Director, Investor Relations
Jennifer Halvas leads the firm’s investor relations team, where she is responsible for maintaining relationships with the investor community, bolstering infrastructure for new and existing investors and helping to develop investment strategies and initiatives. She has been instrumental in securing capital needs for several Cityview funds across a broad base of institutional investors, insurance companies, foundations and endowments, family offices and high-net-worth investors. A 12-year veteran of Cityview, she uses her deep institutional knowledge to create value for investors and the communities in which Cityview works.
She was previously at O’Melveny & Myers LLP, where she represented a variety of clients in real estate, project development and finance transactions. Jennifer holds a B.A. with honors from the University of Southern California and a JD from Vanderbilt Law School.

Damian Gancman

Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Damian Gancman oversees the operations of Cityview and its investments while supporting the strategic growth of its finance, acquisition, asset management and property management functions. An 18-year veteran of the firm, Damian is also a partner at Cityview and a member of its investment committee. As CFO, he helped build out Cityview’s best-in-class finance department, including the implementation of strategic process, accounting, reporting and technology improvements that enhance the investor experience.

In addition to his role at Cityview, Damian is a guest lecturer for the University of Southern California’s Master of Real Estate Development program and is a key contributor to the Cityview Leadership Academy. Damian earned a master’s degree in real estate development from the University of Southern California and a dual bachelor’s degree in business administration and psychology from the University of California, Berkeley.

Sean Burton

Chief Executive Officer

Sean Burton has been with Cityview since 2003. Prior to joining Cityview, Sean was vice president of corporate business development and strategy at Warner Bros. Before that, he was an attorney in the real estate and corporate groups at O’Melveny & Myers, LLP and also served in the White House during the Clinton Administration. In 2022, Burton was appointed by President Biden and confirmed by the U.S. Senate as the federal nominee on the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority Board of Directors, which oversees Washington Dulles and Reagan National airports. He also serves as co-chair of the Los Angeles Coalition, a coalition of business leaders for the economy and jobs in LA. From 2013 to 2021, Sean served as President of the Board of Airport Commissioners which oversees the LAX and Van Nuys airports. Sean holds a B.A. from the University of California, Irvine and a JD from New York University School of Law.